Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 8, 2022
Updated: Tue Feb 8 07:53:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Feb 11, 2022 - Sat, Feb 12, 2022
D7
Mon, Feb 14, 2022 - Tue, Feb 15, 2022
D5
Sat, Feb 12, 2022 - Sun, Feb 13, 2022
D8
Tue, Feb 15, 2022 - Wed, Feb 16, 2022
D6
Sun, Feb 13, 2022 - Mon, Feb 14, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080751
SPC AC 080751
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Tue Feb 08 2022
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that a blocking
mid-level high, initially centered near the U.S. Pacific coast, will
become suppressed late this week into next weekend, before reforming
a bit farther offshore early next week. Coinciding with this latter
development, it appears that a significant short wave trough may dig
inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, before
splitting, with the more strongly amplifying southern portion
digging into the vicinity of the Southwest by the end of the period.
However, this is still forecast to be preceded by transitory
mid-level trough amplification across the central and eastern U.S.,
which probably will be accompanied by a reinforcing intrusion of
seasonably cool/dry air into much of the western and northern Gulf
Basin late next weekend into early next week.
There is still some signal that the reinforcing front may be
preceded by sufficient boundary-layer modification and
destabilization over parts of the south central through southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, and Florida Straits vicinity, to support
thunderstorm development which could impact parts of southern
Florida Gulf and Atlantic coastal areas, as well as the Keys, late
Saturday night into Sunday. However, with low-level wind fields
currently forecast to remain weak across this region, and
boundary-layer destabilization over inland areas likely to remain
weak, the risk for severe weather appears limited.
..Kerr.. 02/08/2022
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