ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090800
   SPC AC 090800

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Wed Feb 09 2022

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to indicate that an initial blocking
   mid-level high, centered near the California coast, will weaken this
   weekend, before reforming (at least to some extent) farther offshore
   by early next week.  And it appears that much of North America will
   largely remain under the influence of relatively amplified splitting
   branches of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific
   through this period.

   By the coming weekend, guidance continues to indicate that this
   evolving regime may include a significant short wave trough digging
   into the Southeast, before accelerating east-northeastward off the
   Atlantic coast.  It appears that this may support a developing wave
   along a remnant frontal zone, mainly east of the Florida Peninsula. 
   Most prominently, it probably will be accompanied by a reinforcing
   intrusion of seasonably cold/dry air through much of the Gulf Basin.
   However, preceding this front, there remains a signal that
   boundary-layer modification over parts of the south central and
   southeastern Gulf of Mexico may support sufficient moistening and
   destabilization to contribute to an area of developing thunderstorm
   activity.  While this may impact at least Gulf and Atlantic coastal
   areas of southern Florida late Saturday evening into early Sunday,
   it still appears that relatively weak low-level wind fields will
   minimize the risk for severe weather.

   Into the early to middle portion of next week, guidance indicates
   that the evolving pattern may include more substantive amplification
   in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes.  It appears that an
   increasingly prominent mid-level subtropical ridge may build across 
   Caribbean, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Southeast, in advance
   of troughing digging across the Southwest and northern Mexico into
   the southern Great Plains.  As this occurs, the boundary-layer
   offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, and across much of the Gulf
   Basin, may undergo rapid modification in the wake of recent cold
   intrusions.  

   A substantive inland return of low-level moisture appears possible
   as early as next Wednesday, particularly off the western Gulf of
   Mexico into the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi
   Valley.  While this may occur beneath initially steep mid-level
   lapse rates, models do suggest that this may also coincide with
   cold/stable air advancing southward through the Great Plains, in the
   wake of significant mid-level troughing in a branch of westerlies
   across the northern tier of the U.S.  The southward surging cold air
   may tend to suppress surface frontal wave development across the
   southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley.  In doing so,
   it probably will limit the risk for severe thunderstorm development,
   but this will need to continue to be monitored.

   ..Kerr.. 02/09/2022

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