Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 20, 2022
Updated: Sun Feb 20 09:50:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Feb 23, 2022 - Thu, Feb 24, 2022
D7
Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022
D5
Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022
D8
Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022
D6
Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200948
SPC AC 200948
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
On Wednesday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the
eastern half of the U.S. as an upper-level trough moves into the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, a slow-moving front should be in
place from the Texas Coastal Plain east-northeastward across the
Gulf Coast states. An isolated severe threat will be possible
Wednesday afternoon along and ahead of parts of the front that heat
up sufficiently. Due to the limited amount of large-scale ascent
forecast across the Southeast on Wednesday, uncertainty is too great
to warrant adding a severe threat area at this time.
On Thursday and Friday, the southwestern U.S. upper-level trough is
forecast to eject quickly east-northeastward across the Great
Plains, Mississippi Valley and eastern states. Ahead of the system,
a moist airmass in the Gulf Coast states should advect northward
with the northern edge of the moist airmass located from northern
Mississippi into southern Tennessee by Thursday afternoon. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible in this area Thursday
afternoon if surface temperatures can warm sufficiently. Additional
convection should develop along and just ahead of a fast-moving cold
front that is forecast to move into the Appalachians Thursday night.
This front should reach the Eastern Seaboard during the day on
Friday, where storm development will be possible as well.
Uncertainty is too great concerning the timing of the upper-level
system and instability to add a threat area for Thursday.
...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
Over the weekend, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
across the western U.S., reaching the Great Plains during the day on
Sunday. Ahead of this system, a moist airmass is forecast across the
Gulf Coast states, where thunderstorm development with some severe
potential will be possible each afternoon and evening. The models
show varying degrees of moisture return suggesting that uncertainty
is substantial concerning instability and the resulting magnitude of
any severe threat for Saturday and Sunday.
..Broyles.. 02/20/2022
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