Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 21, 2022
Updated: Mon Feb 21 09:52:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Feb 24, 2022 - Fri, Feb 25, 2022
D7
Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022
D5
Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022
D8
Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022
D6
Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210950
SPC AC 210950
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Great
Plains on Thursday as a cold front advances southeastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley. Although instability is forecast to be
very weak along and ahead of the front, thunderstorm development
will be possible during the day as surface temperatures warm. The
greatest potential for a severe threat would be just ahead of the
front from Louisiana into Mississippi Thursday afternoon. Forecast
instability and large-scale lift over the warm sector appear to be
too weak to consider adding a threat area.
On Friday, model forecasts move the cold front quickly southeastward
across the Gulf Coast and eastern states. At this time, an
upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes
region. Ahead of this trough, very strong low to mid-level flow
should be located in the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Although instability is forecast to remain very weak Friday
afternoon, strong large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be
present. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat with
short-topped thunderstorms near peak heating on Friday. At this
time, uncertainty concerning this potential is too great to add a
threat area.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Over the weekend, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward
into the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. A dry airmass should
overtake much of the continental United States, making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas. The one exception will
be in the Gulf Coast states where elevated thunderstorms could
develop each day. However, the instability needed for a severe
threat is expected to remain offshore across the Gulf of Mexico.
..Broyles.. 02/21/2022
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