Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 22, 2022
Updated: Tue Feb 22 09:53:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Feb 25, 2022 - Sat, Feb 26, 2022
D7
Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022
D5
Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022
D8
Tue, Mar 01, 2022 - Wed, Mar 02, 2022
D6
Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220951
SPC AC 220951
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022
Valid 251200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward across the Northeast. At the surface, an associated cold
front should advance eastward from the Appalachians eastward across
the Eastern Seaboard during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing near the front Friday morning. As the
low-level jet shifts northeastward, the convective threat should
increase across the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England during the
afternoon. Although instability will be weak, enhanced large-scale
ascent and strong deep-layer shear may be enough for a severe
threat. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated, mainly due
to the marginal thermodynamic environment.
Over the weekend, the cold front is forecast to move into the
northern Gulf of Mexico as an upper-level trough moves quickly
eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Although
instability ahead of the trough will be weak, thunderstorm
development will be possible across parts of the Gulf Coast states
and Carolinas. A marginal severe threat could develop along the
immediate central Gulf Coast, mainly on Saturday afternoon near the
peak in instability.
...Monday/Day 7 to Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday and Tuesday, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to settle
in across the eastern half of the nation. This should limit
thunderstorm potential in most areas. A severe threat is not
expected to develop on Monday or Tuesday across the continental
United States.
..Broyles.. 02/22/2022
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