Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 23, 2022
Updated: Wed Feb 23 09:47:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Feb 26, 2022 - Sun, Feb 27, 2022
D7
Tue, Mar 01, 2022 - Wed, Mar 02, 2022
D5
Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022
D8
Wed, Mar 02, 2022 - Thu, Mar 03, 2022
D6
Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230945
SPC AC 230945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Wed Feb 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
On Saturday and Sunday, an upper-level trough will move eastward
across the central and eastern U.S., as a cold and dry airmass
remains in place in much of the central and eastern United States. A
front should be located across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The best
chance for thunderstorms should be on Saturday afternoon along the
Texas coast where the front may intersect with the coast, but any
severe threat should be minimized due to weak instability and
limited large-scale ascent. The potential for thunderstorms is
expected to shift east-northeastward across the southeastern states
and into the Carolinas by Sunday afternoon.
...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
In the early to mid-week time-frame, the cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico is forecast to move southward as a cool and dry airmass
remains in place across much of the continental United States. The
chance for thunderstorms during this time period appears to be low
for much of the continental United States. The exception will be
across the southern Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday where
thunderstorms will be possible.
..Broyles.. 02/23/2022
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