Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 24, 2022
Updated: Thu Feb 24 09:47:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Feb 27, 2022 - Mon, Feb 28, 2022
D7
Wed, Mar 02, 2022 - Thu, Mar 03, 2022
D5
Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022
D8
Thu, Mar 03, 2022 - Fri, Mar 04, 2022
D6
Tue, Mar 01, 2022 - Wed, Mar 02, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240945
SPC AC 240945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Thu Feb 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 8...
The upper-level pattern early in the day 4 to 8 period is forecast
to consist of an upper-level ridge in the Rockies and an upper-level
trough along the East Coast. A somewhat similar pattern is forecast
to remain in place during much of the early to mid week. This will
keep a cold and dry airmass in place across much of the nation as
high pressure remains dominant from the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Moisture return should
be limited, which will make thunderstorms unlikely across most of
the continental United States during the Day 4 to 8 period. The one
exception could be from the Texas Coast eastward to near the Delta
of the Mississippi River on Sunday and Monday where isolated
thunderstorms could occur.
..Broyles.. 02/24/2022
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