Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 25, 2022
Updated: Fri Feb 25 09:39:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Feb 28, 2022 - Tue, Mar 01, 2022
D7
Thu, Mar 03, 2022 - Fri, Mar 04, 2022
D5
Tue, Mar 01, 2022 - Wed, Mar 02, 2022
D8
Fri, Mar 04, 2022 - Sat, Mar 05, 2022
D6
Wed, Mar 02, 2022 - Thu, Mar 03, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250937
SPC AC 250937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022
Valid 281200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Various models including the ECMWF ensemble mean indicate a
relatively benign pattern for severe potential across the CONUS
through at least Thursday/D7, with a mean upper trough across the
Great Lakes and Northeast, and high pressure at the surface.
Indications are that by Friday/D8, a broad upper trough with
embedded waves may develop over the western CONUS, with better
low-level moisture return from the western Gulf of Mexico into the
southern Plains. While instability is still forecast to be weak at
that time, thunderstorm chances may increase by Friday/D8. Even so,
severe potential appears low.
..Jewell.. 02/25/2022
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