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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 4, 2022
Updated: Wed May 4 08:58:03 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 4, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 4, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 37,406 833,532 Lincoln, NE...Grand Island, NE...Kearney, NE...Fremont, NE...Norfolk, NE...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 4, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 69,933 5,452,408 Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 4, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 111,174 8,738,385 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Des Moines, IA...Sioux Falls, SD...
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 4, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 4, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, May 07, 2022 - Sun, May 08, 2022 D7Tue, May 10, 2022 - Wed, May 11, 2022
D5Sun, May 08, 2022 - Mon, May 09, 2022 D8Wed, May 11, 2022 - Thu, May 12, 2022
D6Mon, May 09, 2022 - Tue, May 10, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040856
   SPC AC 040856

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
   A low amplitude progressive upper-level trough is forecast to move
   across the western U.S. on Saturday, as moisture advection takes
   place across the Great Plains. By afternoon, an axis of moderate
   instability is forecast across the southern and central Plains.
   Thunderstorms will likely develop at the northern end of the
   instability corridor across the Dakotas and Nebraska. The best
   combination of instability and shear is currently forecast over
   Nebraska, where a severe threat would develop near the exit region
   of a broad mid-level jet. Large hail and wind damage would be the
   primary threats. A 15 percent contour is added across parts of the
   central Plains for Saturday afternoon and evening.

   On Sunday, the models maintain southwesterly mid-level flow across
   the central U.S. and continue moisture advection across eastern
   parts of the Great Plains into the Ozarks and Arklatex. The northern
   end of this unstable airmass is forecast across eastern parts of the
   central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Even though forcing
   could be minimal, thunderstorms would develop in areas where
   low-level convergence becomes locally maximized. Strong deep-layer
   shear should exist along the instability axis creating favorable
   conditions for severe storms. Any severe threat would remain
   isolated, but a 15 percent contour seems warranted due to the
   forecast quality of low-level moisture and instability.

   For Monday, southwest mid-level flow is likely across the
   north-central states. This will enable low-level moisture advection
   to continue across eastern parts of the Great Plains and over the
   western Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints could reach the 70s
   across parts of the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development would be
   possible Monday afternoon along an axis of moderate to strong
   instability from the mid Missouri Valley northward into the upper
   Mississippi Valley. Again, considering the quality of low-level
   moisture, a 15 percent contour seems warranted, in spite of the
   uncertainties.

   ...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
   On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts develop a belt of strong
   southwest mid-level flow across the western and northern states. A
   moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain over the eastern
   Great Plains and western Mississippi Valley. Mid-level flow is
   forecast to become more meridional on Wednesday as an upper-level
   low develops across the southwestern U.S. As a result, the stronger
   flow is forecast to shift westward into the High Plains. Although
   thunderstorms may develop along the corridor of low-level moisture
   further to the east, uncertainty is substantial concerning the
   magnitude of deep-layer shear that will be in place. Also, a lack of
   large-scale ascent will be problematic. These factors are too great
   to warrant adding a severe threat area at this time.

   ..Broyles.. 05/04/2022

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