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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 7, 2022
Updated: Sat May 7 09:03:02 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 72,990 1,549,746 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, May 10, 2022 - Wed, May 11, 2022 D7Fri, May 13, 2022 - Sat, May 14, 2022
D5Wed, May 11, 2022 - Thu, May 12, 2022 D8Sat, May 14, 2022 - Sun, May 15, 2022
D6Thu, May 12, 2022 - Fri, May 13, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 070901
   SPC AC 070901

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Complex evolution of a western U.S. trough is expected to occur
   through the medium-range period.  Model differences become
   increasingly apparent with time as the system shifts slowly eastward
   across the western and into the central U.S. through the period. 
   This complexity and the associated differences in solutions from the
   various models hint at low predictability and thus a lack of
   confidence in areally highlighting areas of severe-weather
   potential.

   On Day 4/Tuesday, while the trough remains over the West, ridging
   over the Plains should limit convection/severe risk overall.  Some
   risk is evident over the upper Mississippi Valley area once again,
   near a surface baroclinic zone progged to continue lingering across
   the area.  Once again, the most likely scenario would be with storms
   to the cool side of the boundary, given warm-sector capping.  At
   this time, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant an areal
   highlight.

   Slightly greater risk may evolve however over the southern High
   Plains vicinity.  Here, models forecast that a subtle cyclonic
   disturbance will move northeastward out of Mexico, contributing to
   ascent along a dryline likely to evolve as another day of strong
   heating/mixing is expected across the region.  Though deep-layer
   shear may remain a bit marginal, moderate, high-based CAPE should be
   sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and some/associated
   wind/hail risk.

   Beyond Day 4, a gradual/piecemeal eastward advance of the western
   U.S. upper system is expected.  While areas of increased
   severe-weather potential will likely accompany the system's advance,
   at this time will not attempt to highlight any specific areas of
   heightened risk.

   ..Goss.. 05/07/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: May 07, 2022
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