Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 7, 2022
Updated: Sat May 7 09:03:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
72,990
1,549,746
Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, May 10, 2022 - Wed, May 11, 2022
D7
Fri, May 13, 2022 - Sat, May 14, 2022
D5
Wed, May 11, 2022 - Thu, May 12, 2022
D8
Sat, May 14, 2022 - Sun, May 15, 2022
D6
Thu, May 12, 2022 - Fri, May 13, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070901
SPC AC 070901
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Complex evolution of a western U.S. trough is expected to occur
through the medium-range period. Model differences become
increasingly apparent with time as the system shifts slowly eastward
across the western and into the central U.S. through the period.
This complexity and the associated differences in solutions from the
various models hint at low predictability and thus a lack of
confidence in areally highlighting areas of severe-weather
potential.
On Day 4/Tuesday, while the trough remains over the West, ridging
over the Plains should limit convection/severe risk overall. Some
risk is evident over the upper Mississippi Valley area once again,
near a surface baroclinic zone progged to continue lingering across
the area. Once again, the most likely scenario would be with storms
to the cool side of the boundary, given warm-sector capping. At
this time, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant an areal
highlight.
Slightly greater risk may evolve however over the southern High
Plains vicinity. Here, models forecast that a subtle cyclonic
disturbance will move northeastward out of Mexico, contributing to
ascent along a dryline likely to evolve as another day of strong
heating/mixing is expected across the region. Though deep-layer
shear may remain a bit marginal, moderate, high-based CAPE should be
sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and some/associated
wind/hail risk.
Beyond Day 4, a gradual/piecemeal eastward advance of the western
U.S. upper system is expected. While areas of increased
severe-weather potential will likely accompany the system's advance,
at this time will not attempt to highlight any specific areas of
heightened risk.
..Goss.. 05/07/2022
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