Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 16, 2022
Updated: Thu Jun 16 08:12:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jun 19, 2022 - Mon, Jun 20, 2022
D7
Wed, Jun 22, 2022 - Thu, Jun 23, 2022
D5
Mon, Jun 20, 2022 - Tue, Jun 21, 2022
D8
Thu, Jun 23, 2022 - Fri, Jun 24, 2022
D6
Tue, Jun 21, 2022 - Wed, Jun 22, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160810
SPC AC 160810
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper ridge will likely remain prominent over much of
the Plains and MS Valley from Day 4/Sunday into early next week. A
highly amplified upper trough/low centered over the western CONUS
should advance slowly east-northeastward across the northern
Rockies/Plains and central Canada in the same time frame. Sufficient
low-level moisture return and related instability may be present
across parts of the northern Plains to support some severe threat on
Day 4/Sunday. However, there are still enough differences in model
guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage and placement to limit
confidence in a focused area of greater severe potential.
As the upper trough continues eastward across central Canada and the
north-central states, an isolated severe risk may exist across parts
of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest from Day 5/Monday into
Day 6/Tuesday. However, based on differences in the placement of the
upper trough and related surface features in the latest medium-range
guidance, it is unclear which day may have a greater severe
potential. There are some indications that a severe risk may persist
across parts of the Great Lakes into the Northeast by the middle of
next week, and perhaps the northern Plains as well, as the upper
ridge becomes suppressed and mid-level flow becomes increasingly
zonal across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, predictability
remains low at this extended time frame.
..Gleason.. 06/16/2022
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