Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 18, 2022
Updated: Sat Jun 18 08:23:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jun 21, 2022 - Wed, Jun 22, 2022
D7
Fri, Jun 24, 2022 - Sat, Jun 25, 2022
D5
Wed, Jun 22, 2022 - Thu, Jun 23, 2022
D8
Sat, Jun 25, 2022 - Sun, Jun 26, 2022
D6
Thu, Jun 23, 2022 - Fri, Jun 24, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180821
SPC AC 180821
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an expansive upper
ridge will be centered over the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. A
shortwave trough is forecast to progress through the northern
periphery of this ridge throughout the day, contributing to some
dampening. The upper ridge is expected to build westward on
D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday, eventually covering much of the
southern third of the CONUS. Enhanced westerly flow is anticipated
north of this upper ridge, in the vicinity of the international
border. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs will likely progress through
this enhanced flow, potentially interacting with a moist and buoyant
air mass to promote thunderstorms. However, given the large-scale
pattern, predictability of these subtle waves as well as the quality
of the low-level moisture and buoyancy is low, limiting forecast
confidence.
..Mosier.. 06/18/2022
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