Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 20, 2022
Updated: Mon Jun 20 08:42:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jun 23, 2022 - Fri, Jun 24, 2022
D7
Sun, Jun 26, 2022 - Mon, Jun 27, 2022
D5
Fri, Jun 24, 2022 - Sat, Jun 25, 2022
D8
Mon, Jun 27, 2022 - Tue, Jun 28, 2022
D6
Sat, Jun 25, 2022 - Sun, Jun 26, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200839
SPC AC 200839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
remain anchored in place across the southern third of the CONUS
through the weekend. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move
across southern Canada and the international border vicinity from
D4/Thursday through D7/Sunday. Some dampening of the upper ridge is
possible as this shortwave impinges on the its northeastern
periphery on D7/Sunday and D8/Monday.
Most recent guidance suggests that a seasonally strong cold front
(associated with the southern Canada shortwave) will push
southward/southeastward into the central Plains and Upper Midwest on
D5/Friday, and into the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley on
D6/Saturday. A warm and deeply mixed boundary layer will precede
this front, likely limiting buoyancy, and the stronger mid-level
flow and vertical shear will be displaced north. These factors
should keep the overall severe thunderstorm coverage isolated.
..Mosier.. 06/20/2022
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