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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Updated: Sat Jul 30 08:57:03 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 30, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Tue, Aug 02, 2022 - Wed, Aug 03, 2022 D7Fri, Aug 05, 2022 - Sat, Aug 06, 2022
D5Wed, Aug 03, 2022 - Thu, Aug 04, 2022 D8Sat, Aug 06, 2022 - Sun, Aug 07, 2022
D6Thu, Aug 04, 2022 - Fri, Aug 05, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300855
   SPC AC 300855

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-northeastward from the
   Pacific Northwest on Tuesday into the northern Plains on Wednesday.
   At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located in the mid
   to upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate to strong instability could
   develop both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon along and near a moist
   axis in the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes.
   However, there is some uncertainty concerning instability. Some
   model solutions forecast the stronger instability across the upper
   Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, while the other solutions develop
   more instability on Wednesday across the western Great Lakes. The
   magnitude and location of any severe threat from Tuesday into
   Wednesday will depend upon which solutions are correct. Although the
   environment could support a severe threat across parts of the region
   on both Tuesday and Wednesday, there is substantial uncertainty
   concerning if the severe threat can reach slight risk criteria. If
   model solutions can become more consistent concerning the magnitude
   and distribtuion of instability, then a threat could area could need
   to be added across parts of the region in later outlooks.

   ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
   The upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern Great
   Lakes and into the Northeast on Thursday into Thursday night.
   Further west, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
   east-northeastward from the West Coast on Thursday and into northern
   High Plains by Friday. Although the models are in decent agreement
   concerning the timing of the upper-level trough, large differences
   exist concerning the distribution of instability late in the week.
   If a pocket of moderate instability develops in the northern Plains
   on Friday, such as the ECMWF solution suggests, then an isolated
   severe threat would be possible in the afternoon for parts of the
   Dakotas and Minnesota. Also, a severe threat would be possible
   further east on Saturday in parts of the Great Lakes region.
   However, uncertainty is substantial at this range, and confidence
   for any specific threat is low at this time.

   ..Broyles.. 07/30/2022

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Page last modified: July 30, 2022
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