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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Updated: Sun Jul 31 09:01:03 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 31, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Aug 03, 2022 - Thu, Aug 04, 2022 D7Sat, Aug 06, 2022 - Sun, Aug 07, 2022
D5Thu, Aug 04, 2022 - Fri, Aug 05, 2022 D8Sun, Aug 07, 2022 - Mon, Aug 08, 2022
D6Fri, Aug 05, 2022 - Sat, Aug 06, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 310859
   SPC AC 310859

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
   An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to
   move across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. The front should
   reach the Northeast on Thursday. Pockets of moderate instability
   will be possible each afternoon along and ahead of the front. As
   surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will be possible
   on Wednesday in the southern and eastern Great Lakes, and in the
   central and northern Appalachians on Thursday. Although forecast
   instability and shear appear to be sufficient for an isolated severe
   threat each day, the greater threat could be on Wednesday in the
   Great Lakes, where the models are in better agreement concerning
   instability. If moderate instability does materialize on Wednesday
   in Wisconsin and Lower Michigan, as some solutions suggest, then an
   isolated severe threat would be possible in the late afternoon and
   early evening.

   ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
   Over the weekend, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build across
   the central U.S. Mid-level flow to the north of the ridge is
   forecast to be west-southwesterly across much of the Upper Midwest.
   Although moisture return should take place in the north-central
   states on Friday and Saturday, the models suggest that instability
   will remain relatively weak. Although an isolated severe threat will
   be possible in areas that heat up the most each afternoon, model
   solutions do not favor any day over another concerning the severe
   potential. At this time, forecasts in the north-central states
   suggest that any severe threat would remain marginal, and have a
   substantial amount of conditionality.

   ..Broyles.. 07/31/2022

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Page last modified: July 31, 2022
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