Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 2, 2022
Updated: Tue Aug 2 08:49:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Aug 05, 2022 - Sat, Aug 06, 2022
D7
Mon, Aug 08, 2022 - Tue, Aug 09, 2022
D5
Sat, Aug 06, 2022 - Sun, Aug 07, 2022
D8
Tue, Aug 09, 2022 - Wed, Aug 10, 2022
D6
Sun, Aug 07, 2022 - Mon, Aug 08, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020847
SPC AC 020847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper high will remain situated over Kansas and Oklahoma through
the D4-D8 period, with the primary storm track from the northern
Rockies into the Great Lakes. While low-amplitude waves may glance
the northern tier of states at times, most of the wave energy will
remain in Canada. In addition, predictability is low regarding the
timing of these features. While a moist air mass will lead to
scattered daytime storms from the MO/MS Valleys eastward into the OH
Valley, significant concentrations of severe storms are not
currently anticipated due to weak shear.
..Jewell.. 08/02/2022
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