Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 5, 2022
Updated: Fri Aug 5 08:43:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Aug 08, 2022 - Tue, Aug 09, 2022
D7
Thu, Aug 11, 2022 - Fri, Aug 12, 2022
D5
Tue, Aug 09, 2022 - Wed, Aug 10, 2022
D8
Fri, Aug 12, 2022 - Sat, Aug 13, 2022
D6
Wed, Aug 10, 2022 - Thu, Aug 11, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050841
SPC AC 050841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members remain in reasonable agreement
with the large-scale pattern through Friday/D8, showing a prominent
upper high over the West gradually shifting east toward the Plains.
Slightly lower heights will exist across the Great Lakes and
Northeast on Monday/D4, with only a low-amplitude wave affecting the
region. A weak surface low will also move from Lower MI into the
Northeast on Monday/D4, with ample low-level moisture to support
daytime storms along a trailing cold front into the lower MO Valley.
However, MUCAPE is forecast to be at or below 500 J/kg due to warm
temperatures aloft, and, deep-layer shear as well as mean wind
speeds will remain marginal for any severe threat.
The aforementioned cold front will gradually push south each day,
with rain and thunderstorms developing across the southeastern
quarter of the CONUS. Given little flow and warm temperatures aloft,
concentrated areas of severe weather appear unlikely.
Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms will remain possible over much of the
Southwest, south of the upper high and beneath weak easterlies
aloft.
..Jewell.. 08/05/2022
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