Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 6, 2022
Updated: Sat Aug 6 08:02:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Aug 09, 2022 - Wed, Aug 10, 2022
D7
Fri, Aug 12, 2022 - Sat, Aug 13, 2022
D5
Wed, Aug 10, 2022 - Thu, Aug 11, 2022
D8
Sat, Aug 13, 2022 - Sun, Aug 14, 2022
D6
Thu, Aug 11, 2022 - Fri, Aug 12, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060800
SPC AC 060800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A prominent upper high will gradually move from the central Rockies
into the Plains, where it will remain through Saturday/D8.
Meanwhile, a large upper trough will develop over eastern Canada,
with lowering heights extending south across the Great Lakes and
Northeast Wednesday/D5 into Friday/D7. Although winds aloft will
increase across this region, moisture and instability will likely be
pushed too far south as a front continues moving toward the Mid
Atlantic and Southeast.
Elsewhere, daily monsoonal storms will persist across much of the
West, and sporadic strong wind gusts may occur with these afternoon
storms.
..Jewell.. 08/06/2022
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