Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 21, 2022
Updated: Sun Aug 21 08:47:02 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Aug 24, 2022 - Thu, Aug 25, 2022
D7
Sat, Aug 27, 2022 - Sun, Aug 28, 2022
D5
Thu, Aug 25, 2022 - Fri, Aug 26, 2022
D8
Sun, Aug 28, 2022 - Mon, Aug 29, 2022
D6
Fri, Aug 26, 2022 - Sat, Aug 27, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210845
SPC AC 210845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The upper pattern on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday is forecast to
feature eastern CONUS troughing and subtropical ridging over the
central/southern Plains and Southwest. A shortwave trough is
expected to eject eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the
northern Rockies/northern High Plains on D6/Friday, and northern
Plains/Upper MS Valley on D7/Saturday. Progression of this system
will help dampen the persist subtropical ridging, with broad
troughing likely in place across the CONUS by early D8/Sunday.
Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this shortwave across the
northern High Plains on D6/Friday and the Upper MS Valley on
D7/Saturday. Current guidance suggest mid-level flow will be
limited, tempering the severe potential. Additionally, variability
within the guidance on the timing and strength of the shortwave
limits predictability at this forecast range. Even so, this signal
merits watching within the next few cycles of the guidance for some
severe potential.
..Mosier.. 08/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
