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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Updated: Mon Aug 22 08:47:03 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Aug 22, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Aug 25, 2022 - Fri, Aug 26, 2022 D7Sun, Aug 28, 2022 - Mon, Aug 29, 2022
D5Fri, Aug 26, 2022 - Sat, Aug 27, 2022 D8Mon, Aug 29, 2022 - Tue, Aug 30, 2022
D6Sat, Aug 27, 2022 - Sun, Aug 28, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220845
   SPC AC 220845

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A shortwave trough is expected to eject eastward from the Pacific
   Northwest across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains on
   D5/Friday, and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on D6/Saturday.
   Progression of this system will help dampen the persistent
   subtropical ridging, with broad troughing likely in place across the
   CONUS by early D7/Sunday. 

   Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this shortwave across the
   northern High Plains on D5/Friday as low-level moisture and
   associated buoyancy return northward amid persistent
   southerly/southeasterly flow. Thunderstorms are also anticipated
   D6/Saturday over the Upper MS Valley as the shortwave continues
   eastward. Mid-level flow associated with this shortwave will be
   modest, but isolated severe thunderstorms currently appear possible
   on both D5/Friday and D6/Saturday. Stronger low-level flow is
   anticipated across the Upper MS Valley on D6/Saturday, which may
   lead to greater severe thunderstorms coverage.

   Another shortwave trough may traverse the northern CONUS early next
   week, but variability within the guidance limits forecast
   confidence.

   ..Mosier.. 08/22/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: August 22, 2022
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