Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 23, 2022
Updated: Tue Aug 23 08:53:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Aug 26, 2022 - Sat, Aug 27, 2022
D7
Mon, Aug 29, 2022 - Tue, Aug 30, 2022
D5
Sat, Aug 27, 2022 - Sun, Aug 28, 2022
D8
Tue, Aug 30, 2022 - Wed, Aug 31, 2022
D6
Sun, Aug 28, 2022 - Mon, Aug 29, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230851
SPC AC 230851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper low is expected to be centered near the Montana/Alberta
border early D4/Friday. This low is expected to open up as it
becomes more progressive, moving eastward across southern
Saskatchewan and the northern High Plains on D4/Friday. This system
will then trend more northeastward as it moves across southern
Manitoba on D5/Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this
shortwave across the northern High Plains on D4/Friday as low-level
moisture and associated buoyancy return northward amid persistent
southerly/southeasterly flow
Thunderstorms are also possible across the Upper Midwest on
D5/Saturday, as a convectively induced shortwave trough interacts
with the moist airmass over the region. Storm severity will likely
be tempered by modest vertical shear and a preponderance of elevated
storms.
Upper pattern is forecast to trend more zonal this weekend as the
eastern CONUS troughing loses amplitude. The persistent ridging over
the Southwest will dampen as a series of shortwave troughs traverse
its northern periphery. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity
of these waves, but the stronger flow aloft will remain displaced
north across southern Canada, liming the severe potential. This
zonal pattern may be short-lived, with upper ridging expected to
build back across much of the CONUS early next week.
..Mosier.. 08/23/2022
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