Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 24, 2022
Updated: Wed Aug 24 08:42:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Aug 27, 2022 - Sun, Aug 28, 2022
D7
Tue, Aug 30, 2022 - Wed, Aug 31, 2022
D5
Sun, Aug 28, 2022 - Mon, Aug 29, 2022
D8
Wed, Aug 31, 2022 - Thu, Sep 01, 2022
D6
Mon, Aug 29, 2022 - Tue, Aug 30, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240840
SPC AC 240840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a more zonal upper
pattern will be in place D4/Saturday morning. Several shortwave
troughs will be embedded within this more zonal flow, including one
that extends from southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the central
Plains and another entering the Pacific Northwest.
Thunderstorms are anticipated across the Upper Midwest on
D4/Saturday, as the eastward-moving shortwave trough interacts
with the moist airmass over the region. Storm severity will likely
be tempered by modest vertical shear and a preponderance of elevated
storms. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward on
D5/Sunday, with the southern portion of the wave becoming
increasingly less progressive than the northern portion.
Thunderstorms are again possible in the vicinity of this wave, but
storm severity will be tempered by modest buoyancy and weak shear.
Farther west, guidance has trended stronger with the shortwave
trough dropping southward across the Pacific Northwest on
D4/Saturday. This shortwave is then expected to traverse the
northern periphery of a ridge building across the Southwest, moving
eastward through northern NV on D5/Sunday and northeastward from
southern ID into southeast MT on D6/Monday. Limited low-level
moisture ahead of this system should keep thunderstorm coverage
isolated.
Guidance diverges early next week, particularly with the evolution
of the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough, limiting forecast
confidence after D6/Monday. There is some signal within the guidance
that strong shortwave trough will move across northeast Canada on
D8/Wednesday, with an associated front moving across the Upper Great
Lakes and Northeast.
..Mosier.. 08/24/2022
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