Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 4, 2022
Updated: Sun Sep 4 08:02:04 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Sep 07, 2022 - Thu, Sep 08, 2022
D7
Sat, Sep 10, 2022 - Sun, Sep 11, 2022
D5
Thu, Sep 08, 2022 - Fri, Sep 09, 2022
D8
Sun, Sep 11, 2022 - Mon, Sep 12, 2022
D6
Fri, Sep 09, 2022 - Sat, Sep 10, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040800
SPC AC 040800
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The medium-range model output remains characterized by large spread
concerning short wave developments within the westerlies across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific through the coming work week and next
weekend. This has and continues to result in rather varied
solutions concerning the eastward acceleration and evolution of one
short wave trough forecast to be approaching the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by mid week. It appears probable
that this impulse will contribute to at least some suppression of
the prominent mid-level high initially centered over the Great
Basin. It may provide support for a developing surface cyclone
across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies late this week
into next weekend. However, guidance continues to indicate that
this will be preceded by the evolution of a fairly broad, but weak
cyclonic mid-level circulation across the lower Mississippi
Valley/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. This will likely inhibit
or at least slow substantive low-level moisture return to the higher
latitudes. The impact of this on subsequent destabilization is one
factor of perhaps a few that suggest the potential for organized
severe storm development will remain low.
..Kerr.. 09/04/2022
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