Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 5, 2022
Updated: Mon Sep 5 08:41:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Sep 08, 2022 - Fri, Sep 09, 2022
D7
Sun, Sep 11, 2022 - Mon, Sep 12, 2022
D5
Fri, Sep 09, 2022 - Sat, Sep 10, 2022
D8
Mon, Sep 12, 2022 - Tue, Sep 13, 2022
D6
Sat, Sep 10, 2022 - Sun, Sep 11, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050839
SPC AC 050839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to suggest low pattern predictability in the
extended range, with sizable spread concerning short wave
developments within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific into North America by next weekend, which grows further
through early next week. This includes the uncertain evolution of
one short wave trough which probably will be in the process of
digging into the northern Rockies vicinity by the beginning of this
period. Some model output has and continues to be suggestive that
this impulse may contribute to larger-scale troughing splitting off
the main belt of westerlies, with a slow moving embedded mid-level
low eventually evolving somewhere across the Great Lakes vicinity
next weekend. But even within and among the models indicating this,
there has been substantial spread.
Regardless, it still appears that the evolution of a closed cyclonic
mid-level circulation within weaker flow across the lower
Mississippi Valley/central Gulf coast vicinity will hinder
substantive moisture return (and associated destabilization) to
continuing initial surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into southern Hudson Bay on Thursday. While subsequent
developments across the Great Lakes into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny
Plateau vicinity remain unclear, at this time there appears little
signal within the guidance that suggests more than marginal or
isolated severe weather potential through this period.
..Kerr.. 09/05/2022
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