Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 6, 2022
Updated: Tue Sep 6 08:40:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Sep 09, 2022 - Sat, Sep 10, 2022
D7
Mon, Sep 12, 2022 - Tue, Sep 13, 2022
D5
Sat, Sep 10, 2022 - Sun, Sep 11, 2022
D8
Tue, Sep 13, 2022 - Wed, Sep 14, 2022
D6
Sun, Sep 11, 2022 - Mon, Sep 12, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060838
SPC AC 060838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
It is appearing increasingly probable that mid-level troughing,
forecast to dig southeast of the northern Rockies late this week,
will gradually split off the main branch of westerlies, as an
embedded mid-level low evolves across the Upper Midwest/upper
Mississippi Valley into and through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
vicinity late next weekend into early next week. There remains
considerable spread within the various model output concerning this
evolution. However, guidance generally indicates that the advection
of elevated mixed-layer air east of the Rockies will become cut off
prior to this development, and associated surface cyclogenesis will
probably be weak. Despite the likelihood of seasonably moist air
eventually advecting northward ahead of the system to the east of
the Mississippi River, temperature profiles with relatively weak
lapse rates and modest to weak shear probably will tend to
marginalize any associated severe weather potential.
Upstream, in the wake of Kay, seasonably moist air will continue to
return to the Southwest this weekend, and perhaps much of the Great
Basin into Rockies early next week, as mid/upper flow trends more
zonal. This will be accompanied by an increase in diurnal
thunderstorm activity, but the potential for the evolution of
organizing clusters posing more than a risk for localized strong
wind gusts remains unclear at this time.
..Kerr.. 09/06/2022
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