Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 8, 2022
Updated: Thu Sep 8 08:36:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Sep 11, 2022 - Mon, Sep 12, 2022
D7
Wed, Sep 14, 2022 - Thu, Sep 15, 2022
D5
Mon, Sep 12, 2022 - Tue, Sep 13, 2022
D8
Thu, Sep 15, 2022 - Fri, Sep 16, 2022
D6
Tue, Sep 13, 2022 - Wed, Sep 14, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080834
SPC AC 080834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The latest medium-range guidance is not much different than prior
runs concerning convective potential late next weekend into next
week. It still appears that mid-level flow may trend at least a bit
more zonal and progressive to the south of the Canadian/U.S. border.
However, in the wake of a mid-level closed low, initially forming
within this regime across the northern Great Plains into upper
Mississippi Valley this weekend, it appears that another mid-level
high may at least attempt to build across the southern Great
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week.
With regard to the mid-level low, model depiction of its evolution
and eastward progression toward the Atlantic coast remains quite
varied. However, most guidance continues to indicate that
associated surface cyclogenesis will remain relatively weak, with
potential for substantive strengthening of low-level wind
fields/shear and boundary instability in its warm sector rather low.
This seems likely to at least marginalize the risk for severe
storms, if not preclude.
..Kerr.. 09/08/2022
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