Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 19, 2022
Updated: Mon Sep 19 08:47:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Sep 22, 2022 - Fri, Sep 23, 2022
D7
Sun, Sep 25, 2022 - Mon, Sep 26, 2022
D5
Fri, Sep 23, 2022 - Sat, Sep 24, 2022
D8
Mon, Sep 26, 2022 - Tue, Sep 27, 2022
D6
Sat, Sep 24, 2022 - Sun, Sep 25, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190845
SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
From Thursday to Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
east-northeastward from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes.
Moisture return associated with this system is forecast to be very
weak. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F are only forecast to reach the
Ozarks on Friday and Ohio Valley on Saturday. Convection associated
with the upper-level trough is forecast to be well to the north of
the moist airmass, which should minimize any potential severe
threat.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid
Mississippi Valley, where a moist airmass should be located.
Although the models keep instability relatively weak ahead of the
system, large-scale ascent associated with the trough and moderate
deep-layer shear could be enough for an organized severe threat. The
greatest chance for severe would be from north Texas northeastward
into the western Tennessee Valley on Sunday afternoon. At this time,
instability is not forecast to be strong enough to warrant adding a
severe threat area.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F are
forecast across much of the eastern U.S. Although instability is
forecast remain weak ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent
and moderate to strong deep-layer shear could be sufficient for a
severe threat. The wind-damage threat would be maximized if a squall
line can organize across the eastern U.S. At this time, confidence
in the model solutions at this extended range is low. If the timing
of the trough is different, or if moisture return is weaker than
expected, then the resulting severe threat would be considerably
less. Due to uncertainty, will not add a severe threat at this time.
..Broyles.. 09/19/2022
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