Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 22, 2022
Updated: Thu Sep 22 09:00:03 UTC 2022
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Sep 25, 2022 - Mon, Sep 26, 2022
D7
Wed, Sep 28, 2022 - Thu, Sep 29, 2022
D5
Mon, Sep 26, 2022 - Tue, Sep 27, 2022
D8
Thu, Sep 29, 2022 - Fri, Sep 30, 2022
D6
Tue, Sep 27, 2022 - Wed, Sep 28, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220857
SPC AC 220857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Thu Sep 22 2022
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move east-southeastward into
the southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Ahead of the
trough, some moisture advection will take place. Surface dewpoints
are forecast to reach the mid 60s F from parts of the Southeast
northeastward into the Mid Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorms will be
probable during the day ahead of a cold front moving southeastward
through the Mississippi Valley. A potential for strong thunderstorms
will be possible in areas that sufficiently warm ahead of the front.
At this time, forecast instability appears to be too weak for a
severe threat area on Day 4.
On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the
eastern U.S. Ahead of the large-scale trough, a shortwave trough
could move northeastward into parts of the Northeast during the day.
Ahead of this feature, weak instability and enhanced large-scale
forcing would make linear thunderstorm development possible in parts
of New England. This combined with strong deep-layer shear could
result in a severe threat. This potential would be greatest if the
shortwave trough ends up being slower than is currently forecast.
Further south, a potential for storm development will also be
possible along the immediate Atlantic Coast Monday afternoon.
However, instability should be weak suggesting the severe threat
will remain limited.
...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move to the East Coast, and
then eastward into the Atlantic, from Tuesday to Thursday. Further
west, high pressure is forecast to remain in place across much of
the western and central U.S. Some model forecasts suggest that a
tropical system will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. If a
tropical system does materialize, the track of the system would
determine the potential for thunderstorms in the Gulf Coast region.
However, due to the lack of predictability concerning tropical
weather systems, no conclusions can be made concerning a severe
threat along the Gulf Coast at this time.
..Broyles.. 09/22/2022
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