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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Updated: Fri Sep 23 08:10:02 UTC 2022
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 23, 2022
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Sep 26, 2022 - Tue, Sep 27, 2022 D7Thu, Sep 29, 2022 - Fri, Sep 30, 2022
D5Tue, Sep 27, 2022 - Wed, Sep 28, 2022 D8Fri, Sep 30, 2022 - Sat, Oct 01, 2022
D6Wed, Sep 28, 2022 - Thu, Sep 29, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230808
   SPC AC 230808

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Severe-thunderstorm potential appears limited over most of the CONUS
   next week, as dry and stable conditions persist in the wake of a
   cold frontal passage across the central/eastern states. Any notable
   threat during the extended-range period will likely be dependent on
   the track and intensity of a tropical cyclone which is forecast to
   develop across the Caribbean this weekend and potentially approach
   the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Please see NHC advisories and
   forecasts for more information on this system.

   ..Dean.. 09/23/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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