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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Updated: Mon Feb 27 10:02:03 UTC 2023
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 127,091 6,597,282 Shreveport, LA...Jackson, MS...Tyler, TX...Tuscaloosa, AL...Longview, TX...
15 % 161,434 25,644,954 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 147,993 23,580,197 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 27, 2023
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, Mar 02, 2023 - Fri, Mar 03, 2023 D7Sun, Mar 05, 2023 - Mon, Mar 06, 2023
D5Fri, Mar 03, 2023 - Sat, Mar 04, 2023 D8Mon, Mar 06, 2023 - Tue, Mar 07, 2023
D6Sat, Mar 04, 2023 - Sun, Mar 05, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 270959
   SPC AC 270959

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z


   ...Thursday/Day 4...
   A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely
   Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for
   large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be
   strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the
   east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern
   Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday
   night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week,
   respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep
   South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its
   related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this
   severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern
   Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk
   should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across
   the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually
   the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night.

   ...Friday/Day 5...
   Severe-weather potential is expected to continue to Friday across
   the Southeast States including Georgia/north Florida and the
   Carolinas, and possibly as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
   This will be as the upper-level trough races northeastward from the
   Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic States.
   Very strong deep-layer winds will coincide with a modestly unstable
   warm sector ahead of a cold front and/or residual convection from
   Thursday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes could occur
   across the region.

   ...Saturday/Day 6 through Monday/Day 8...
   An inactive few days with limited deep convective/severe potential
   is currently expected this weekend into early next week. High
   pressure will likely be increasingly established east of the Rockies
   as richer low-level moisture is shunted toward the Gulf of Mexico.

   ..Guyer.. 02/27/2023

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