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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 16, 2023
Updated: Tue May 16 08:39:02 UTC 2023
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 16, 2023
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 16, 2023
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 156,424 16,348,989 San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 16, 2023
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 16, 2023
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 16, 2023
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 16, 2023
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, May 19, 2023 - Sat, May 20, 2023 D7Mon, May 22, 2023 - Tue, May 23, 2023
D5Sat, May 20, 2023 - Sun, May 21, 2023 D8Tue, May 23, 2023 - Wed, May 24, 2023
D6Sun, May 21, 2023 - Mon, May 22, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 160837
   SPC AC 160837

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

   Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement
   through Day 6 (Sunday), after which fairly substantial
   synoptic-scale differences begin to emerge over the U.S. --
   initially surrounding timing/amplitude differences related to a
   short-wave trough progged to dig southeastward across the Canadian
   Prairie.  While the GFS keeps this feature entirely confined to
   Canada, turning it in a more easterly direction through Day 7, the
   ECMWF brings this feature much farther southeastward -- across the
   Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region Days 7-8.

   Prior to this breakdown in agreement however, there is more
   substantial agreement that a cold front crossing the central third
   of the country will continue moving eastward across the Midwest and
   southward across the southern Plains Day 4, and then to the Atlantic
   and Gulf Coasts Day 5.  With this front suppressing higher theta-e
   low-level air to the southern/southeastern U.S., a
   second/reinforcing front Day 6 is forecast to surge southeastward
   across the central and eastern states -- maintaining this southward
   suppression of warm/moist air.

   As a result of the above, the overall pattern is suggestive of
   minimal severe-weather risk.  The greatest risk apparent during the
   time period appears to reside over the southern Plains Day 4
   (Friday), as the initial cold front shifts southward across the
   southern Plains.  While weak short-wave ridging aloft is forecast to
   prevail, glancing influence of an upper trough moving across the
   upper Midwest should be sufficient to support thunderstorm
   development as the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon.  With
   moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies expected atop the warm
   sector, threat appears sufficient to warrant 15% areal inclusion at
   this time.

   As the front sags farther southward -- to the Gulf Coast vicinity --
   Day 5 (Saturday), some risk could evolve near the boundary across
   the Gulf Coast states and Georgia.  However, some uncertainty
   regarding frontal location/progress precludes any risk area
   inclusion at this time.

   By Day 6, with higher theta-e air likely suppressed to the Gulf,
   appreciable convection would likely remain confined to the Florida
   vicinity, and deep South Texas, where more limited instability and
   shear should generally prevail.

   ..Goss.. 05/16/2023

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