Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 17, 2023
Updated: Wed May 17 09:43:02 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, May 20, 2023 - Sun, May 21, 2023
D7
Tue, May 23, 2023 - Wed, May 24, 2023
D5
Sun, May 21, 2023 - Mon, May 22, 2023
D8
Wed, May 24, 2023 - Thu, May 25, 2023
D6
Mon, May 22, 2023 - Tue, May 23, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170941
SPC AC 170941
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good large-scale
agreement on the general upper flow pattern over the U.S. through
Day 6. Beyond this time, though model differences increase, it
nonetheless appears that large-scale/organized severe weather
potential will be low through the end of the period.
In the shorter term, limited severe risk will likely exist from
portions of Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and Georgia
day 4 (Saturday), as a cold front continues to sag southward toward
the Gulf of Mexico. At this time however, both instability and
shear appear likely to remain somewhat limited, which suggests that
stronger storms should remain isolated. Once this front reaches the
northern Gulf Day 5, surface high pressure is forecast to expand
southeastward across the central and eastern U.S., and likely remain
there through the end of the period. As such, overall severe risk
should remain limited through the period.
..Goss.. 05/17/2023
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