Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 19, 2023
Updated: Fri May 19 08:35:03 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, May 22, 2023 - Tue, May 23, 2023
D7
Thu, May 25, 2023 - Fri, May 26, 2023
D5
Tue, May 23, 2023 - Wed, May 24, 2023
D8
Fri, May 26, 2023 - Sat, May 27, 2023
D6
Wed, May 24, 2023 - Thu, May 25, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190832
SPC AC 190832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Recent medium-range guidance suggests the upper pattern will be free
of any significant shortwave troughs over the CONUS through at least
the middle of next week. Upper ridging is expected to be in place
across central CONUS from D4/Monday through D7/Thursday, with
surface high pressure covering much of the eastern CONUS during the
same time frame. Low-level moisture will maintained along the
southern and western periphery of this surface ridging, keeping a
large reservoir of 60+ dewpoints over the central and southern
Plains. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is expected across the
southern Rockies during this period as well, helping to support
continued lee troughing as well as diurnal thunderstorm initiation
over the higher terrain. Additionally, moderate low-level jet is
likely across the southern and central High Plains each night during
the period.
The persistence of this pattern suggests afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will be possible over the southern and central High
Plains each day, with some potential for downstream upscale growth
into the more favorable moisture and strengthening low-level jet.
However, at this forecast range, uncertainty regarding daily storm
coverage is high, as is uncertainty regarding overall convective
evolution.
..Mosier.. 05/19/2023
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