Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 20, 2023
Updated: Sat May 20 08:43:02 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, May 23, 2023 - Wed, May 24, 2023
D7
Fri, May 26, 2023 - Sat, May 27, 2023
D5
Wed, May 24, 2023 - Thu, May 25, 2023
D8
Sat, May 27, 2023 - Sun, May 28, 2023
D6
Thu, May 25, 2023 - Fri, May 26, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200841
SPC AC 200841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging is expected to persist across the central CONUS
throughout much of the extended period, with modest mid-level flow
anticipated across the CONUS during this time frame as well. The
absence of any large-scale synoptic systems will allow for low-level
moisture to be maintained along the southern and western periphery
of extensive surface ridging, keeping a large reservoir of 60+
dewpoints over the central and southern Plains. Persistent
southwesterly flow aloft is expected across the southern Rockies
during this period, helping to support continued lee troughing as
well as diurnal thunderstorm initiation over the higher terrain.
These thunderstorms could then move into the more moist and unstable
conditions across the central/southern High Plains, contributing to
some severe storm potential. Additionally, a moderate low-level jet
is anticipated nightly across the southern and central High Plains,
supporting severe potential late into the evening. However, given
the forecast range, overall convective evolution remains uncertain,
with preceding thunderstorm activity greatly impacting the following
day's severe potential. This limits predictability, resulting in low
forecast confidence.
There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that a more
substantial southern-stream shortwave trough will move through the
Southwest this weekend. However, variability remains high within the
guidance, and predictability is low.
..Mosier.. 05/20/2023
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