Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 21, 2023
Updated: Sun May 21 08:57:02 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, May 24, 2023 - Thu, May 25, 2023
D7
Sat, May 27, 2023 - Sun, May 28, 2023
D5
Thu, May 25, 2023 - Fri, May 26, 2023
D8
Sun, May 28, 2023 - Mon, May 29, 2023
D6
Fri, May 26, 2023 - Sat, May 27, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210855
SPC AC 210855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
persist across the central CONUS throughout the week before a
southern-stream shortwave trough moves through the southern High
Plains and southern/central Plains next weekend. The relatively
stagnant upper pattern during the week will likely result in a
repeated scenario of initiation over the higher terrain of the
southern Rockies and along any surface boundaries over the central
and southern High Plains. Some severe may accompany these storms
each day, but the predictability of their location and coverage is
low at this forecast range.
As previously mentioned, a southern-stream shortwave trough may move
through the southern High Plains on D7/Saturday, resulting in a more
widespread severe threat. Even so, model run-to-run consistency is
low and forecast confidence remains too low to introduce any outlook
areas at this time.
..Mosier.. 05/21/2023
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