Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 26, 2023
Updated: Mon Jun 26 09:04:02 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jun 29, 2023 - Fri, Jun 30, 2023
D7
Sun, Jul 02, 2023 - Mon, Jul 03, 2023
D5
Fri, Jun 30, 2023 - Sat, Jul 01, 2023
D8
Mon, Jul 03, 2023 - Tue, Jul 04, 2023
D6
Sat, Jul 01, 2023 - Sun, Jul 02, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260902
SPC AC 260902
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
A mid-level anticyclone is forecast across the south-central U.S. on
Thursday and Friday. To the north of the anticyclone, a subtle
shortwave trough will likely move eastward across the north-central
U.S. Model forecasts on both days have a moist airmass in place from
the Ohio Valley westward into southern parts of the Upper Midwest.
Scattered thunderstorm development will likely take place over much
of this moist airmass each afternoon. The strongest storms are
forecast along the northern edge of this moist airmass where
mid-level flow will be stronger. Isolated strong thunderstorms may
also develop in parts of the central High Plains, associated with a
developing shortwave trough. Strong wind gusts and hail would be the
primary threats. At this time, the lack of focus suggests that
predictability is too low to add a severe threat area.
...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the
central U.S., as a front moves southward across the east-central
U.S. From Sunday into Monday, this front is forecast to move slowly
or stall from parts of the Ozarks eastward into the southern
Appalachians, while the upper-level trough moves eastward across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms appear most likely to
develop along and near the front each afternoon. The environment
could support an isolated severe threat, but this will likely depend
on mesoscale factors that have low predictability at this time.
..Broyles.. 06/26/2023
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