Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 20, 2023
Updated: Wed Sep 20 08:38:03 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
124,655
9,028,166
Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Sep 23, 2023 - Sun, Sep 24, 2023
D7
Tue, Sep 26, 2023 - Wed, Sep 27, 2023
D5
Sun, Sep 24, 2023 - Mon, Sep 25, 2023
D8
Wed, Sep 27, 2023 - Thu, Sep 28, 2023
D6
Mon, Sep 25, 2023 - Tue, Sep 26, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200836
SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An active start to the extended period is expected, with a
pronounced mid-level trough traversing the northern U.S. and an
associated surface cold front sweeping across the Plains states this
weekend. On Saturday, the primary surface low will drift eastward
across the northern Plains, with the cold front progressing eastward
across eastern portions of the Plains toward the Mid MS Valley.
Adequate overlapping shear and instability should precede the cold
front, supporting scattered severe storms across IA into eastern KS
and MO. More isolated severe storms may also form farther south
along a trailing dryline from southeast KS into northeast OK. 15
percent severe probabilities have been maintained where medium-range
guidance is in best agreement for greater storm coverage. The severe
threat may persist into Sunday as the cold front continues to sag
southward into the southern Plains. Again, adequate buoyancy and
shear may support at least an isolated severe threat. However, the
timing and position of severe storms on Sunday is highly dependent
on cold-front placement, and given that uncertainty, severe
probabilities have been withheld for Sunday.
Next week, the upper trough should deamplify, with upper ridging
gradually building into the central CONUS. Despite the upper
ridging, surface lee troughing and favorable northward moisture
transport may persist over the Plains/Midwest states, potentially
encouraging bouts of scattered thunderstorms. However, widespread
severe storms do not appear likely, and details regarding local
severe-thunderstorm evolution are too unclear to pinpoint in the
Days 6-8 time frame.
..Squitieri.. 09/20/2023
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