Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 25, 2023
Updated: Mon Sep 25 08:53:03 UTC 2023
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Sep 28, 2023 - Fri, Sep 29, 2023
D7
Sun, Oct 01, 2023 - Mon, Oct 02, 2023
D5
Fri, Sep 29, 2023 - Sat, Sep 30, 2023
D8
Mon, Oct 02, 2023 - Tue, Oct 03, 2023
D6
Sat, Sep 30, 2023 - Sun, Oct 01, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250851
SPC AC 250851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
eastern U.S. on Thursday and Friday. During that time, southwesterly
mid-level flow is forecast to develop across the north-central U.S,
with low-level moisture returning northward into the northern
Plains. Although large-scale ascent will not be that strong,
low-level flow is forecast to increase Friday and Friday night as a
Great Plains jet near 850 mb strengthens. Lift associated with the
jet could be favorable for elevated thunderstorm development across
parts of the northern Plains, with the greatest convective coverage
overnight on Friday. The potential for thunderstorms may continue on
Saturday across the northern Plains, as moisture return continues
and the airmass destabilizes. An isolated severe threat could
accompany the stronger storms Saturday afternoon and evening.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
An upper-level low is forecast to develop across the western U.S. on
Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves across the north-central U.S.
Near and to the west of the ridge, a pocket of moderate instability
is forecast to remain over parts of the northern Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will continue to be possible across this moist and
unstable airmass from Sunday into Monday. An isolated severe threat
could develop each afternoon. However, predictability is low
concerning any potential scenario.
..Broyles.. 09/25/2023
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