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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 6, 2024
Updated: Mon May 6 09:00:03 UTC 2024
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 6, 2024
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 6, 2024
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 230,830 47,493,327 Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 6, 2024
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 6, 2024
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 6, 2024
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 6, 2024
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Thu, May 09, 2024 - Fri, May 10, 2024 D7Sun, May 12, 2024 - Mon, May 13, 2024
D5Fri, May 10, 2024 - Sat, May 11, 2024 D8Mon, May 13, 2024 - Tue, May 14, 2024
D6Sat, May 11, 2024 - Sun, May 12, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 060858
   SPC AC 060858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   ...Day 4/Thursday...
   Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement showing an upper
   trough moving gradually eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley and
   Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. A weak surface low
   initially over the OH Valley should likewise advance eastward
   through the day while slowly deepening, and eventually reaching the
   Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A moist low-level airmass should
   be in place across the Southeast, and extend northeastward into
   parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. Weak
   to moderate instability should develop ahead of the front with
   daytime heating. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is
   likewise expected to slowly increase through the day with the
   eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should
   gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon,
   especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains.
   Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms occurring has increased
   enough to add a broad 15% severe area from GA to the Mid-Atlantic.

   A separate area of potential severe thunderstorms has also become
   apparent across parts of TX on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude
   shortwave trough should advance northeastward from northern Mexico
   across the southern Plains through the day, providing ascent needed
   to initiate convection along a surface front/dryline. A very moist
   and unstable airmass will likely be present south/east of these
   boundaries, and deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong for
   severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe hail and
   damaging winds.

   In between the two 15% severe areas, some severe threat should also
   exist across the Southeast. However, the effect of a possible
   overnight/early Thursday morning MCS may complicate destabilization
   and related severe potential later in the day. Have therefore not
   included the central Gulf Coast States in a 15% severe delineation
   at this time.

   ...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday...
   Limited severe potential should become increasingly confined to the
   immediate Gulf Coast and FL from Friday into the upcoming weekend,
   as a cold front continues southward. By Sunday into early next week,
   there are some indications in guidance that low-level moisture may
   begin to return northward across the southern Plains. However, model
   spread is large at this extended time frame, and predictability
   remains low.

   ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024

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