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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 7, 2024
Updated: Tue May 7 08:51:02 UTC 2024
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2024
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2024
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2024
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2024
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2024
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 7, 2024
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, May 10, 2024 - Sat, May 11, 2024 D7Mon, May 13, 2024 - Tue, May 14, 2024
D5Sat, May 11, 2024 - Sun, May 12, 2024 D8Tue, May 14, 2024 - Wed, May 15, 2024
D6Sun, May 12, 2024 - Mon, May 13, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 070848
   SPC AC 070848

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Isolated severe potential on Day 4/Friday should remain confined to
   parts of north FL and vicinity along/ahead of a cold front. The
   overall environment and limited spatial extent of the threat does
   not appear sufficient to justify including a 15% severe area at this
   time. Generally low severe potential is anticipated on Day
   5/Saturday, although some strong thunderstorms may still occur
   across parts of the FL Peninsula where the cold front stalls.
   Guidance generally indicates low-level moisture should attempt to
   return northward across parts of the southern Plains around Day
   6/Sunday and continuing into early next week. But, generally zonal
   mid-level flow across this region, with a weak upper low over the
   Great Basin/Southwest, suggests that whatever severe potential
   ultimately develops across the southern Plains may tend to remain
   fairly isolated.

   ..Gleason.. 05/07/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: May 07, 2024
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