Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 8, 2024
Updated: Wed May 8 08:46:02 UTC 2024
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 8, 2024
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 8, 2024
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 8, 2024
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 8, 2024
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 8, 2024
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 8, 2024
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, May 11, 2024 - Sun, May 12, 2024 D7Tue, May 14, 2024 - Wed, May 15, 2024
D5Sun, May 12, 2024 - Mon, May 13, 2024 D8Wed, May 15, 2024 - Thu, May 16, 2024
D6Mon, May 13, 2024 - Tue, May 14, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 080844
   SPC AC 080844

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited
   across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL
   Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur
   across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level
   lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region,
   any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of
   northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the
   overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add
   a 15% severe area across south TX.

   From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low
   should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the
   southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak
   low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a
   northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the
   southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may
   exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution
   of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the
   rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest
   predictability remains too low to include any severe areas.

   ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 08, 2024
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities