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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 9, 2024
Updated: Thu May 9 08:50:03 UTC 2024
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 9, 2024
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 9, 2024
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 9, 2024
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 9, 2024
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 9, 2024
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 9, 2024
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, May 12, 2024 - Mon, May 13, 2024 D7Wed, May 15, 2024 - Thu, May 16, 2024
D5Mon, May 13, 2024 - Tue, May 14, 2024 D8Thu, May 16, 2024 - Fri, May 17, 2024
D6Tue, May 14, 2024 - Wed, May 15, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090848
   SPC AC 090848

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A positively tilted upper trough should progress eastward across the
   southern/central Plains on Day 4/Sunday. Low-level moisture will
   attempt to advance northward across TX in response, but it may be
   limited by generally elevated convection to the north of a warm
   front. Still, some severe risk may exist across parts of TX, if
   thunderstorms can form in the warm sector. This potential still
   appears a bit too uncertain to include a 15% severe area for Sunday
   at this time.

   Medium-range guidance remains in reasonably good agreement that the
   upper trough will continue advancing eastward over the lower MS
   Valley and Southeast early next week. Severe potential on Day
   5/Monday will probably tend to focus over parts of central/east TX
   into LA, where the best instability and shear are currently
   forecast. However, there are potentially complicating factors, such
   as antecedent precipitation and uncertainty regarding the northward
   extent of the warm sector. This limits confidence to some extent in
   where the greatest severe threat will exist for Monday.

   For Day 6/Tuesday, the rich low-level moisture and related warm
   sector may tend to be confined fairly near/along the central Gulf
   Coast, with the upper trough moving over the Deep South. Too much
   uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area for
   Tuesday across this region. Predictability of the upper-air pattern
   and severe potential across the CONUS becomes even more limited by
   Day 7/Wednesday and Day 8/Thursday.

   ..Gleason.. 05/09/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: May 09, 2024
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