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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 10, 2024
Updated: Fri May 10 09:00:03 UTC 2024
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 10, 2024
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 10, 2024
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 10, 2024
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 10, 2024
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 10, 2024
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on May 10, 2024
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, May 13, 2024 - Tue, May 14, 2024 D7Thu, May 16, 2024 - Fri, May 17, 2024
D5Tue, May 14, 2024 - Wed, May 15, 2024 D8Fri, May 17, 2024 - Sat, May 18, 2024
D6Wed, May 15, 2024 - Thu, May 16, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 100858
   SPC AC 100858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
   southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern
   Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to
   make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley
   on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. 

   Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX
   into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days
   of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether
   or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates.
   Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the
   location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too
   low to outlook any areas.

   Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on
   D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place
   ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences
   within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of
   antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit
   overall forecast confidence.

   From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable
   run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and
   the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable
   buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during
   this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting
   variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas.

   ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: May 10, 2024
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