Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Updated: Sun Jan 5 09:58:03 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025
D7
Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
D5
Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025
D8
Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025
D6
Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050955
SPC AC 050955
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. on Wednesday,
as another mid-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. This
second trough is forecast to move into the Rockies on Thursday/Day 5
and into the Great Plains on Friday/Day 6. Some thunderstorm
activity will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain
Thursday night, and along the central Gulf Coast on Friday. Ahead of
the system, moisture return is forecast to be minimal across the
western and central Gulf Coast. The airmass overland is expected to
be relatively stable, minimizing any convective potential. As the
mid-level system continues to move eastward, thunderstorms could
develop over parts of Florida on Saturday, with any storms moving
off the coast into the Atlantic on Sunday. Throughout the Day 4 to 8
period, instability is expected to be very limited minimizing any
chance for thunderstorms, and making severe storms very unlikely.
..Broyles.. 01/05/2025
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