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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Updated: Sun Jan 5 09:58:03 UTC 2025
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jan 5, 2025
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Wed, Jan 08, 2025 - Thu, Jan 09, 2025 D7Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
D5Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025 D8Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025
D6Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 050955
   SPC AC 050955

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A mid-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. on Wednesday,
   as another mid-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. This
   second trough is forecast to move into the Rockies on Thursday/Day 5
   and into the Great Plains on Friday/Day 6. Some thunderstorm
   activity will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain
   Thursday night, and along the central Gulf Coast on Friday. Ahead of
   the system, moisture return is forecast to be minimal across the
   western and central Gulf Coast. The airmass overland is expected to
   be relatively stable, minimizing any convective potential. As the
   mid-level system continues to move eastward, thunderstorms could
   develop over parts of Florida on Saturday, with any storms moving
   off the coast into the Atlantic on Sunday. Throughout the Day 4 to 8
   period, instability is expected to be very limited minimizing any
   chance for thunderstorms, and making severe storms very unlikely.

   ..Broyles.. 01/05/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Page last modified: January 05, 2025
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