Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 6, 2025
Updated: Mon Jan 6 09:49:03 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jan 09, 2025 - Fri, Jan 10, 2025
D7
Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025
D5
Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025
D8
Mon, Jan 13, 2025 - Tue, Jan 14, 2025
D6
Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060947
SPC AC 060947
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a low is forecast to move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as southwesterly flow develops over the
south-central U.S. The system will move High Plains on Thursday to
the Southeast by Saturday. Ahead of the associated trough, moisture
return is expected to be limited. This will keep instability mostly
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. A few thunderstorms could develop
near the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday as
the trough passes by. The focus for thunderstorm activity is
forecast to shift eastward into Florida by Saturday. Any severe
threat with this system should be minimal. On Sunday and Monday,
surface high pressure is again forecast to become dominant across
the continental U.S. Cold and dry air will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorms.
..Broyles.. 01/06/2025
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