Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 7, 2025
Updated: Tue Jan 7 09:47:03 UTC 2025
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jan 10, 2025 - Sat, Jan 11, 2025
D7
Mon, Jan 13, 2025 - Tue, Jan 14, 2025
D5
Sat, Jan 11, 2025 - Sun, Jan 12, 2025
D8
Tue, Jan 14, 2025 - Wed, Jan 15, 2025
D6
Sun, Jan 12, 2025 - Mon, Jan 13, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070945
SPC AC 070945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on
Friday/Day 4, as flow ahead of the system remains southwesterly over
much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is forecast to move
into the central Gulf Coast region, with a moist airmass located
ahead of the front mostly offshore. Thunderstorm activity will be
possible from Friday into Saturday along and ahead of the front at
the northern edge of this moist airmass in the coastal sections from
Louisiana to Florida. From Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8,
large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist over the
central U.S. In response, high pressure is forecast to remain
dominant over much of the continental U.S. late in the Day 4 to 8
period. Due to this cold and dry airmass, thunderstorms will be
unlikely.
..Broyles.. 01/07/2025
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