D3 | Mon, May 19, 2008 - Tue, May 20, 2008 | D6 | Thu, May 22, 2008 - Fri, May 23, 2008 |
D4 | Tue, May 20, 2008 - Wed, May 21, 2008 | D7 | Fri, May 23, 2008 - Sat, May 24, 2008 |
D5 | Wed, May 21, 2008 - Thu, May 22, 2008 | D8 | Sat, May 24, 2008 - Sun, May 25, 2008 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 170910 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008 VALID 191200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 3-6 PERIOD. A STRONG ZONAL JET OVER THE NRN PACIFIC ON DAY 3 WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS BEGINNING ON DAY 4. WARM /NEAR RECORD/ TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN ON DAY 4 /TUE/ AS MODERATE SFC WINDS DEVELOP. THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 5 /WED/ LASTING INTO DAY 6 /THU/. BEYOND DAY 6...UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES/ROCKIES /DUE TO AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES/ WILL PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREAS. ..CROSBIE.. 05/17/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$