| D3 | Wed, May 21, 2008 - Thu, May 22, 2008 | D6 | Sat, May 24, 2008 - Sun, May 25, 2008 |
| D4 | Thu, May 22, 2008 - Fri, May 23, 2008 | D7 | Sun, May 25, 2008 - Mon, May 26, 2008 |
| D5 | Fri, May 23, 2008 - Sat, May 24, 2008 | D8 | Mon, May 26, 2008 - Tue, May 27, 2008 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 191405 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008 VALID 211200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH...OR OMEGA BLOCK...PATTERN WILL ATTAIN MATURITY ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH THAT ANCHORS THE WRN PORTION OF THE BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH D3/WED WITH MODELS DEPICTING 100 KT 500 MB JET SPREADING SWD ACROSS CA IN THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS A WARM AND VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM AZ ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WED. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST. ASPECTS OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FURTHER SUGGEST EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW RH VALUES. WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTENSIVE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/BAJA REGIONS INTO D4/THU WHILE A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS ERN NM AND SPREADS OVER THE ADJACENT SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TX TO CO/KS. WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS FROM WRN NM ACROSS AZ...DIURNAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER FLOW AND LEAD TO A N-S AXIS OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND MAY SUSTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK INTO D5/FRI ACROSS GENERALLY THE SAME AREA AS D4...FORECAST RANGE AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND TROUGH EVOLUTION PRECLUDE CONTINUING AN AREA AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. THUS...COOLER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO LIMIT FIRE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. RESENT PER REQUEST. ..CARBIN.. 05/19/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT