| D3 | Mon, Oct 20, 2008 - Tue, Oct 21, 2008 | D6 | Thu, Oct 23, 2008 - Fri, Oct 24, 2008 |
| D4 | Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - Wed, Oct 22, 2008 | D7 | Fri, Oct 24, 2008 - Sat, Oct 25, 2008 |
| D5 | Wed, Oct 22, 2008 - Thu, Oct 23, 2008 | D8 | Sat, Oct 25, 2008 - Sun, Oct 26, 2008 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 180902 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008 VALID 201200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ON MON THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING D3...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS OR...ID...AND NWRN NV WITH WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL PREVENT CRITICALLY LOW RHS. HOWEVER...SHIFTING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE A THREAT TO ANY ONGOING FIRES. MEANWHILE FARTHER S...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN CA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINAL...WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY NEAR SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE FOLLOWING DAY. ON TUE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING D4...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIG SEWD WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SWD ACROSS NRN CA. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER JET WINDS WILL REMAIN E OF CA...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN CA. NLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED. FARTHER S ON D4...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA AND STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THAN D3. EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND W OF THE COASTAL RANGE. AREAS IN FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...GIVEN THE EXTENDED NATURE OF THIS FORECAST...PLEASE REFER TO LATER UPDATES AS A MINOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COULD RESULT IN A WEAKER OR STRONGER SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. BY D5...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS SRN CA...ALTHOUGH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST...WITH LITTLE RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. AFTER D5...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL OUTLINES AT THIS TIME. ..HURLBUT.. 10/18/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT