Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Mar 27, 2013
Updated: Wed Mar 27 19:05:03 UTC 2013
Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3
Fri, Mar 29, 2013 - Sat, Mar 30, 2013
D6
Mon, Apr 01, 2013 - Tue, Apr 02, 2013
D4
Sat, Mar 30, 2013 - Sun, Mar 31, 2013
D7
Tue, Apr 02, 2013 - Wed, Apr 03, 2013
D5
Sun, Mar 31, 2013 - Mon, Apr 01, 2013
D8
Wed, Apr 03, 2013 - Thu, Apr 04, 2013
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 271903
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...D6/MON - FAR SRN NM/TX TRANS PECOS...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CUT-OFF LOW POSITIONED OVER THE CA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A BROAD TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
N-CNTRL/NERN CONUS ON MON. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER FAR SRN NM INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS. THE INCREASING
FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RH VALUES IN THE
LOW TEENS MAY YIELD AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. MODEL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS.
..GARNER.. 03/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT